{"id":707,"date":"2025-04-25T02:13:45","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T02:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/?page_id=707"},"modified":"2025-04-25T07:40:31","modified_gmt":"2025-04-25T07:40:31","slug":"citations","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/citations\/","title":{"rendered":"Citations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>PART I<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Intro to Key Concepts and Ideas<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[1] Viewing Weather as the Expression of Climate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/bams\/104\/9\/BAMS-D-23-0154.1.xml\">https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/bams\/104\/9\/BAMS-D-23-0154.1.xml<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[2] What even is \u201cclimate\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gc.copernicus.org\/preprints\/gc-2018-11\">https:\/\/gc.copernicus.org\/preprints\/gc-2018-11<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[3] What Is Climate Change?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/climate-change\/what-is-climate-change\">https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/climate-change\/what-is-climate-change<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[4] Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 \u00baCCH &#8211; Framing and Context<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/chapter-1\">https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/chapter-1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[5] Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (2006)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nap.nationalacademies.org\/read\/11676\/chapter\/5\">https:\/\/nap.nationalacademies.org\/read\/11676\/chapter\/5<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[6] Joint NASA, NOAA Study Finds Earth&#8217;s Energy Imbalance Has Doubled (2021)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/feature\/langley\/joint-nasa-noaa-study-finds-earths-energy-imbalance-has-doubled\">https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/feature\/langley\/joint-nasa-noaa-study-finds-earths-energy-imbalance-has-doubled<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[7] Is the Sun causing global warming?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/faq\/14\/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming\">https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/faq\/14\/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[8] On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature (2016)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep21691\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep21691<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[9] Climate and Earth\u2019s Energy Budget<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/features\/EnergyBalance#:~:text=The%20Natural%20Greenhouse%20Effect&amp;text=Remember%20that%20the%20surface%20radiates,percent%20of%20incoming%20solar%20energy.\">https:\/\/earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/features\/EnergyBalance#:~:text=The%20Natural%20Greenhouse%20Effect&amp;text=Remember%20that%20the%20surface%20radiates,percent%20of%20incoming%20solar%20energy.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[10] What is the greenhouse effect?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/climate-change\/faq\/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect\">https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/climate-change\/faq\/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[11] How do we know the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by humans?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/climate-qa\/how-do-we-know-build-carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-caused-humans\">https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/climate-qa\/how-do-we-know-build-carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-caused-humans<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[12] A perspective on climate change from Earth&#8217;s energy imbalance (2022)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5295\/ac6f74\">https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5295\/ac6f74<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>With Key Concepts and Ideas defined, let\u2019s look at some numbers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[13] Climate Change Indicators: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climate-indicators\/climate-change-indicators-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20U.S.%20greenhouse%20gas,pounds)%20of%20carbon%20dioxide%20equivalents.\">https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climate-indicators\/climate-change-indicators-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20U.S.%20greenhouse%20gas,pounds)%20of%20carbon%20dioxide%20equivalents.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[14.1] Calculating the amount of octane atoms in a gallon of pure gasoline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1 gallon is equivalent to 3.785 liters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The density of gasoline is 0.7429 grams per milliliter @ 15\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The molar mass of octane (<em>C8H18) <\/em>is 114 grams per mole.1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>1 gallon of octane = (3.785L) (1000ml\/1L) (0.7429g octane\/ml) (mol\/114g octane) = 24.67 mol octane<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[14.2] Calculating the mass of CO<sub>2<\/sub> produced in the combustion of 1 gallon of pure octane:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chemical reaction formula for the combustion of octane: 2C8H18+25O2\u219216CO2+18H2O.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The molar ratio is thus 8CO2 molecules to 1 octane molecule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The molar mass of CO<sub>2<\/sub> is 44.01 grams per mole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>(24.67mol C8H18) (16mol CO2\/2mol C8H18) (44.01g CO2 \/mol) = 8,686g or 19.1lbs CO2<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[14.3] Calculating US annual emissions in units of Salesforce Towers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1 metric ton (\u201ctonne\u201d) is equivalent to 1,000,000 grams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The volume of Salesforce Tower was approximated using its published total height of 1070ft and base side width of 172ft; these dimensions were used to calculate each story as a rectangular subsection decreasing in area from the 40<sup>th<\/sup> story upwards to an estimated area of 8,700 sq. ft. at the top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>5.05 billion metric tons (bmt) = (5.05&#215;10<sup>9<\/sup> metric tons) (10<sup>6<\/sup>g\/tonne) (1gal\/8,686g CO2) (0.133681 ft<sup>3<\/sup>\/1gal)(1 Salesforce Tower\/1.3&#215;10<sup>6<\/sup> ft<sup>3<\/sup>) = 59,785 SFTs per year or approx. 163 per day<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[15] Historical GHG Emissions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/ghgemissions\/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks\">https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/ghgemissions\/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[16] Understanding Global Warming Potentials<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/ghgemissions\/understanding-global-warming-potentials\">https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/ghgemissions\/understanding-global-warming-potentials<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;[17] Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/energy\/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator\">https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/energy\/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[18.1] Calculating crude oil CO<sub>2<\/sub> equivalency:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average heat content of crude oil is 5.80 mmbtu\/barrel<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average carbon coefficient of crude oil is 20.31 kg C\/mmbtu<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ratio of the molecular weight of CO<sub>2<\/sub> to that of carbon is 44 kg CO<sub>2<\/sub>\/12 kg<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>(5.80 mmbtu\/barrel)(20.31 kg C\/mmbtu)(44 kg CO2\/12 kg C)(1 metric ton\/1,000 kg) = 0.43 metric tons CO2\/barrel<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[18.2] Calculating US annual GHG emissions in units of crude oil combustion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>(6.343&#215;10<sup>9<\/sup> tonnes of CO2e) (1 barrel\/0.43 tonnes CO2)(5.614 ft<sup>3<\/sup>\/barrel)(1 Salesforce Tower\/1.3&#215;10<sup>6<\/sup> ft<sup>3<\/sup>) = 63,702 SFTs per year or approx. 174 per day<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The formal equation for calculating CO2e is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Where,<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>CO2e = carbon dioxide equivalent, metric tons\/year<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>GHGi = mass emissions of each greenhouse gas in metric tons per year<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>GWPi = global warming potential for each greenhouse gas<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>n = the number of greenhouse gases emitted<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[19] Carbon dioxide emissions of the most polluting countries worldwide in 2010 and 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/270499\/co2-emissions-in-selected-countries\">https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/270499\/co2-emissions-in-selected-countries<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Now let\u2019s add some historical context to our numbers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[20] Global Carbon Budget 2022 (2022)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/essd.copernicus.org\/articles\/14\/4811\/2022\">https:\/\/essd.copernicus.org\/articles\/14\/4811\/2022<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[21] CO2 emissions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/global-energy-review-2021\/co2-emissions\">https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/global-energy-review-2021\/co2-emissions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[22] Global Carbon<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fs.usda.gov\/ccrc\/topics\/global-carbon\">https:\/\/www.fs.usda.gov\/ccrc\/topics\/global-carbon<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> <em>A common cause for confusion exists in how CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions are recorded and reported: the atomic mass of carbon versus the mass of one CO<sub>2<\/sub>molecule. The equivalency between them is simple but it is important to look at the specific value when researching global emissions data.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[<em>For reference<\/em>] A factor of 3.67 makes a big difference when discussing climate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/article\/the-biggest-source-of-mistakes-carbon-vs-carbon-dioxide\">https:\/\/grist.org\/article\/the-biggest-source-of-mistakes-carbon-vs-carbon-dioxide<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[23] Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/understanding-climate\/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide\">https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/understanding-climate\/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[24] CO2 emissions need to be reduced twice as fast as the rate they have gone up since 1990<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ieep.eu\/news\/co2-emissions-need-to-be-reduced-twice-as-fast-as-the-rate-they-have-gone-up-since-1990\">https:\/\/ieep.eu\/news\/co2-emissions-need-to-be-reduced-twice-as-fast-as-the-rate-they-have-gone-up-since-1990<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 1]<\/strong> An apparent hiatus in global warming?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2013EF000165\">https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2013EF000165<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ok, so what\u2019s the point?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[25] Climate Sensitivity<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/climate.mit.edu\/explainers\/climate-sensitivity#:~:text=Climate%20sensitivity%20is%20a%20term,gases%20in%20the%20atmosphere%20doubles.\">https:\/\/climate.mit.edu\/explainers\/climate-sensitivity#:~:text=Climate%20sensitivity%20is%20a%20term,gases%20in%20the%20atmosphere%20doubles.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[26] Climate Change Indicators: Climate Forcing<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climate-indicators\/climate-change-indicators-climate-forcing#:~:text=Changes%20in%20greenhouse%20gas%20concentrations,and%20warming%20the%20Earth's%20surface.\">https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climate-indicators\/climate-change-indicators-climate-forcing#:~:text=Changes%20in%20greenhouse%20gas%20concentrations,and%20warming%20the%20Earth&#8217;s%20surface.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 2] <\/strong>Atmospheric Transmission<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png\">https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[27] Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7250835\/#CR2\">https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7250835\/#CR2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 3]<\/strong> Representative Concentration Pathway<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Representative_Concentration_Pathway\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Representative_Concentration_Pathway<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 4]<\/strong> An Assessment of Earth&#8217;s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2019RG000678\">https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2019RG000678<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[28] Explainer: The high-emissions \u2018RCP8.5\u2019 global warming scenario<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario\">https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[29] Attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2010JD014287\">https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2010JD014287<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[30] Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth&#8217;s Greenhouse Effect<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/earth\/climate-change\/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect\">https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/earth\/climate-change\/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[31] ppmv<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/hogback.atmos.colostate.edu\/group\/dave\/pdf\">https:\/\/hogback.atmos.colostate.edu\/group\/dave\/pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[32] The Tipping Points of Climate Change: How Will Our World Change?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-earth-org wp-block-embed-earth-org\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"uSFTIaKgh9\"><a href=\"https:\/\/earth.org\/tipping-points-of-climate-change\/\">The Tipping Points of Climate Change: How Will Our World Change?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;The Tipping Points of Climate Change: How Will Our World Change?&#8221; &#8212; Earth.Org\" src=\"https:\/\/earth.org\/tipping-points-of-climate-change\/embed\/#?secret=nh0y1Um1fl#?secret=uSFTIaKgh9\" data-secret=\"uSFTIaKgh9\" width=\"580\" height=\"327\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>[33] Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/9\/12\/124002#:~:text=Maximum%20warming%20occurs%20a%20median,of%202.2%20mK%20GtC%E2%88%921.\">https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/9\/12\/124002#:~:text=Maximum%20warming%20occurs%20a%20median,of%202.2%20mK%20GtC%E2%88%921.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Putting things in perspective<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[34] Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2617-x\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2617-x<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[35] Technical Note: Past and future warming \u2013 direct comparison on multi-century timescales<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cp.copernicus.org\/articles\/18\/911\/2022\/#fn_Ch1.Footn1\">https:\/\/cp.copernicus.org\/articles\/18\/911\/2022\/#fn_Ch1.Footn1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 5]<\/strong> Technical Note: Past and future warming \u2013 direct comparison on multi-century timescales<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cp.copernicus.org\/articles\/18\/911\/2022\/#fn_Ch1.Footn1\">https:\/\/cp.copernicus.org\/articles\/18\/911\/2022\/#fn_Ch1.Footn1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[36] Global vegetation patterns of the past 140,000 years<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/jbi.13930\">https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/jbi.13930<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 6]<\/strong> Global vegetation patterns of the past 140,000 years<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/jbi.13930\">https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/jbi.13930<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[37] You Asked: Dinosaurs Survived When CO2 Was Extremely High. Why Can\u2019t Humans?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.climate.columbia.edu\/2022\/09\/20\/you-asked-dinosaurs-survived-when-co2-was-extremely-high-why-cant-humans\/#:~:text=During%20the%20Cambrian%20Period%2C%20which,to%20mind%20the%20scorching%20conditions.\">https:\/\/news.climate.columbia.edu\/2022\/09\/20\/you-asked-dinosaurs-survived-when-co2-was-extremely-high-why-cant-humans\/#:~:text=During%20the%20Cambrian%20Period%2C%20which,to%20mind%20the%20scorching%20conditions.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 7] <\/strong>What&#8217;s the hottest Earth&#8217;s ever been?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/climate-qa\/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been\">https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/climate-qa\/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The obvious question: Should climate change be taken seriously?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>RWC #1: Unbearable Temperatures will leave Major Population Centers Uninhabitable<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[39] What is the heat index?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/ama\/heatindex\">https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/ama\/heatindex<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[40] An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.0913352107\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.0913352107<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[Figure 8]<\/strong> What is the heat index?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/ama\/heatindex\">https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/ama\/heatindex<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[41] Heat index extremes increasing several times faster than the air temperature<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ad3144\">https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ad3144<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[42] A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-023-43121-5\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-023-43121-5<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[43] The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-023-36289-3\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-023-36289-3<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>RWC #2: Droughts will become Longer, More Intense, and Affect Entire Continents<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[44] Climate change and the aridification of North America<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2006323117\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2006323117<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[45] Why extreme rain pouring into Southwest US hasn&#8217;t fully eliminated the region&#8217;s megadrought<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/extreme-rain-pouring-southwest-us-fully-eliminated-regions\/story?id=107423058\">https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/extreme-rain-pouring-southwest-us-fully-eliminated-regions\/story?id=107423058<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[46] Lower Basin Proposal Adopted By Federal Government Stabilizes Colorado River System Through 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.azwater.gov\/news\/articles\/2024-05-10#:~:text=On%20May%209%2C%202024%2C%20the,the%20near%20term%20through%202026.\">https:\/\/www.azwater.gov\/news\/articles\/2024-05-10#:~:text=On%20May%209%2C%202024%2C%20the,the%20near%20term%20through%202026.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[47] Emergency measures needed to rescue Great Salt Lake from ongoing collapse<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/pws.byu.edu\/great-salt-lake\">https:\/\/pws.byu.edu\/great-salt-lake<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[48] NOAA Drought Task Force Report on the 2020\u20132021 Southwestern U.S. Drought<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.drought.gov\/documents\/noaa-drought-task-force-report-2020-2021-southwestern-us-drought\">https:\/\/www.drought.gov\/documents\/noaa-drought-task-force-report-2020-2021-southwestern-us-drought<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[49] Warming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-023-42932-w\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-023-42932-w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[50] Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-022-12516-7\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-022-12516-7<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[51] Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adj4289\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adj4289<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[52] Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2219825120\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2219825120<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[53] Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought\u2013heatwave events<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41893-022-01024-1\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41893-022-01024-1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>RWC #3: Extreme Weather and Accelerating Sea Level Rise<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[54] Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/understanding-climate\/climate-change-probably-increasing-intensity-tropical-cyclones\">https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/understanding-climate\/climate-change-probably-increasing-intensity-tropical-cyclones<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[55] The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir\u2013Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.2308901121\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.2308901121<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[56] Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01388-4\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01388-4<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[57] Antarctica\u2019s biggest recorded heatwave fully deciphered<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-space-science-and-engineering-center wp-block-embed-space-science-and-engineering-center\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"u1Pd0Hgoim\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/articles\/15468\">Antarctica&#8217;s biggest recorded heatwave fully deciphered\u00a0<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Antarctica&#8217;s biggest recorded heatwave fully deciphered\u00a0&#8221; &#8212; Space Science and Engineering Center\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/articles\/15468\/embed#?secret=g2H9ybfm09#?secret=u1Pd0Hgoim\" data-secret=\"u1Pd0Hgoim\" width=\"580\" height=\"327\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>[58] Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.aaa4019\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.aaa4019<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[59] Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01441-2\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01441-2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[60] New high-end estimate of sea-level rise projections in 2100 and 2300<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/news\/science-highlights\/1955-new-sea-level-projections-2022\">https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/news\/science-highlights\/1955-new-sea-level-projections-2022<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[61] Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding &#8211; A Global Assessment<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0118571\">https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0118571<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[62] Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.aap9234\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.aap9234<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[63] Sea Level Rise in California<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ppic.org\/publication\/sea-level-rise-in-california\">https:\/\/www.ppic.org\/publication\/sea-level-rise-in-california<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>RWC #4: Starvation, Mass Migration, and the Rise of Authoritarian Regimes<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[64] Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.2108146119\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.2108146119<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[65] Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/epdf\/10.1073\/pnas.1718031115\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/epdf\/10.1073\/pnas.1718031115<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[66] Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-019-0637-z\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-019-0637-z<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[67] Projected increase in summer heat-dome-like stationary waves over Northwestern North America<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41612-023-00511-2\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41612-023-00511-2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;[68] Future of the human climate niche<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1910114117\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1910114117<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>RCW#5: Mass Extinctions and Ecosystem Collapse<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[69] Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41559-024-02333-8\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41559-024-02333-8<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[70] Plant responses to changing rainfall frequency and intensity<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-024-00534-0\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-024-00534-0<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[71] The 2020 to 2021 California megafires and their impacts on wildlife habitat<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2312909120#:~:text=More%20than%2019%2C000%20km2,maximum%20high%2Dseverity%20patch%20size.\">https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2312909120#:~:text=More%20than%2019%2C000%20km2,maximum%20high%2Dseverity%20patch%20size.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[72] Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-023-01002-1\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-023-01002-1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[73] Understanding Ocean Acidification<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fisheries.noaa.gov\/insight\/understanding-ocean-acidification#:~:text=Estimates%20of%20future%20carbon%20dioxide,more%20than%2020%20million%20years.\">https:\/\/www.fisheries.noaa.gov\/insight\/understanding-ocean-acidification#:~:text=Estimates%20of%20future%20carbon%20dioxide,more%20than%2020%20million%20years.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>One last look<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[74] Historical and projected future range sizes of the world\u2019s mammals, birds, and amphibians<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-020-19455-9\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-020-19455-9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PART II<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Achieving the Unprecedented<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[75] Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago\">https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[76] Emissions must peak by 2025 to prevent disastrous climate change effects, according to new UN climate report<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/emissions-2025-prevent-disastrous-climate-change-effects-climate\/story?id=83787299\">https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/emissions-2025-prevent-disastrous-climate-change-effects-climate\/story?id=83787299<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[77] Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-018-0071-9\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-018-0071-9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[78] How Electrifying Everything Became a Key Climate Solution<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/04\/14\/climate\/electric-car-heater-everything.html\">https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/04\/14\/climate\/electric-car-heater-everything.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[79] China added more solar panels in 2023 than US did in its entire history<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-carbon-brief wp-block-embed-carbon-brief\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"3osf0uqFc7\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/daily-brief\/china-added-more-solar-panels-in-2023-than-us-did-in-its-entire-history\/\">China added more solar panels in 2023 than US did in its entire history<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;China added more solar panels in 2023 than US did in its entire history&#8221; &#8212; Carbon Brief\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/daily-brief\/china-added-more-solar-panels-in-2023-than-us-did-in-its-entire-history\/embed\/#?secret=S4whn8t7ae#?secret=3osf0uqFc7\" data-secret=\"3osf0uqFc7\" width=\"580\" height=\"327\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rethinking Environmentalism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[80] Report: Health Costs from Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Pollution Tops $820 Billion a Year<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrdc.org\/press-releases\/report-health-costs-climate-change-and-fossil-fuel-pollution-tops-820-billion-year#:~:text=Breathing%20in%20that%20air%20pollution,2020%20dollars)%3A%20%24820%20billion.\">https:\/\/www.nrdc.org\/press-releases\/report-health-costs-climate-change-and-fossil-fuel-pollution-tops-820-billion-year#:~:text=Breathing%20in%20that%20air%20pollution,2020%20dollars)%3A%20%24820%20billion.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Reasons for Hope<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[81] The nuclear fusion era has arrived, if we choose it<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bigthink.com\/starts-with-a-bang\/nuclear-fusion-era-arrived\">https:\/\/bigthink.com\/starts-with-a-bang\/nuclear-fusion-era-arrived<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[82] YPCCC\u2019s Resources on Climate in the 2024 U.S. General Election<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-yale-program-on-climate-change-communication wp-block-embed-yale-program-on-climate-change-communication\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"Vt60KzebhJ\"><a href=\"https:\/\/climatecommunication.yale.edu\/publications\/ypccc-2024-election-resources\/\">YPCCC\u2019s Resources on Climate in the 2024 U.S. General Election<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;YPCCC\u2019s Resources on Climate in the 2024 U.S. General Election&#8221; &#8212; Yale Program on Climate Change Communication\" src=\"https:\/\/climatecommunication.yale.edu\/publications\/ypccc-2024-election-resources\/embed\/#?secret=6gZ4uTjWWZ#?secret=Vt60KzebhJ\" data-secret=\"Vt60KzebhJ\" width=\"580\" height=\"327\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PART I Intro to Key Concepts and Ideas [1] Viewing Weather as the Expression of Climate https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/bams\/104\/9\/BAMS-D-23-0154.1.xml [2] What even is \u201cclimate\u201d? https:\/\/gc.copernicus.org\/preprints\/gc-2018-11 [3] What Is Climate Change? https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/climate-change\/what-is-climate-change [4] Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 \u00baCCH &#8211; Framing and Context https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/chapter-1 [5] Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (2006) https:\/\/nap.nationalacademies.org\/read\/11676\/chapter\/5 [6] Joint [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"templates\/template-full-width.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/707"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=707"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/707\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":710,"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/707\/revisions\/710"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeremysarnecky.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}